Pooja Khurana
Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies, India
Title: Probability estimation of COVID-19 reinfection
Biography
Biography: Pooja Khurana
Abstract
Background and Objective: COVID-19, an epidemic disease, caused by a novel coronavirus called SARS-COV2, significantly affected the whole world. The expeditious rise of corona cases has overpowered everything. Though the number of cases in some selected regions began to slow down after taking precautionary measures (quarantine, social distancing, vaccination), again due to easiness showed by the individuals in preventive measures, the second wave of corona has emerged. A large number of detecting kits and high sensitivity of rt PCR test, community health workers tested various individuals and recorded infectious and recovered ones. The objective of this study is to estimate the probability of COVID-19 reinfection with the help of mathematical equations in the recovered compartment of the system.
Method: A new SIRS model has been proposed with the help of differential equations, whose stability has been checked via Jacobian matrix, and reproduction number has also been calculated.
Results: Due to the avoidance of important preventive and precautionary measures by the people across the community, the cases accelerating erratically. The analytical results obtained by the numerical solutions revealed that the people who were recovered by either quarantine themselves or by synthetic/ chemical treatment/ vaccination can have a chance of reinfections came out to be 1.03.
Conclusion: As there are chances of being reinfected, it’s important to get vaccinated and follow all the precautionary measures required to combat COVID-19 infection.